According to statistics in September most of the steel factory price adjustment 50-100 range
Update time：2016-11-28 16:06:14Number of clicks:1949timesThe shop name:T|T
Related Introduction
In July, the steel market, steel spot prices are still falling more than Yin, new lows again, the decline is slowing down, the downturn is difficult to extricate themselves; Iron ore market prices fluctuate slightly, the price of imported ore limited rebound. Steel spot prices continue to decline slightly, the decline is limited; The slight rebound of the mine price has increased the manufacturing cost of steel. The combined effect of the two makes the operation of steel mills more difficult. In September, the mainstream steel plant general carbon CQ grade various varieties of factory prices although there is downward pressure, but the factory listing price is very likely to be flat. If there is any adjustment of the actual ex-factory price, it is possible to change it through similar preferential policies, and the range will be between -100 and 0 yuan/ton.
1. In July 2014, the domestic steel spot price fell more than Yin
July 31 steel price benchmark index SHCNSI 81.47 points (3524 yuan/ton), compared with June 30 82.22 points (3556 yuan/ton) down 0.75 points (32 yuan), down 0.91%; Steel Home long material price index SHCNSI-L and flat material price index SHCNSI-F decreased by 0.47% and 1.15% respectively from the end of June, which had a significant convergence compared with the decline of 2.66% and 1.08% in June, among which, the decline of long material price was significantly convergence.
At the end of July, the rebar price index SHCNSI-RB and the general wire price index SHCNSI-L decreased by 8 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton respectively from the end of June, with a month-on-month decline of 0.25% and 0.77%, which should belong to the category of small decline, as shown in Table 1. Among them, the upper and late July rebar fell by 4 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively, and rose by 16 yuan/ton in the middle; General wire, late respectively down 7 yuan/ton and 24 yuan/ton, the middle of the rise of 6 yuan/ton, rebar and wire market prices in the middle of the price rebound results, and the late decline is more fierce, reflecting the rebound after the death of the callback strength is not very weak, this result or with the rebound of the market price has a certain correlation. Home steel website "Domestic steel market construction steel market summary" in July data show that in 28 major city markets, the spot price of 20㎜HRB400 rebar in 11 markets rose, mainly in East China market, at the same time there are 14 markets showed each other 10-160 yuan/ton of different degrees of decline. In the falling markets, the falling range of 10 markets is between 10-90 yuan/ton, and the falling range of Southwest market is still between 70-120 yuan/ton, which has been somewhat reduced compared with last month. The price of Chengdu market has fallen to about 3080, lower than the national average price, and there is a large price difference with the price of some markets in Southwest China. By the end of July, the spot market price of rebar in Beijing, Fujian, Hunan, Shaanxi and some markets in northeast China has fallen below the national average price, and the national average price has dropped by 298 yuan/ton, or 8.67%, compared with the end of January.
Table 1: Comparison of the change of Steel benchmark price index in July 2014 (Unit: Yuan/ton)
In July, hot rolled coil price index SHCNSI-HR and medium and thick plate price index SHCNSI-MP fell by 20 yuan/ton and 47 yuan/ton respectively, with a monthly decline of 0.58% and 1.35%. Hot roll prices still maintain a small decline in the change, the spot price of the medium thick plate in July compared with June, although convergence, but still significantly higher than other major varieties. In the first, middle and second half of July, the price of hot-rolled coil fell by 15 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of medium and thick plate fell by 24 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton and 21 yuan/ton respectively. All showed a large decline in the first and second half of the year, and the middle of the trend of stabilization.
In July, the spot price of δ5.75㎜ hot rolled coil appeared between 10 and 100 yuan/ton or flat in 5 markets, still showing a more scattered distribution, that is to say, there is no sign of the overall rebound; Fifteen markets saw prices drop between 10 and 80 yuan/ton, and three markets in Southwest China saw prices drop between 130 and 140 yuan/ton.
The cold rolled coil price index SHCNSI-CR for July fell 39 yuan/ton, or 0.93%, slightly higher than the 0.85% decline in June, still in the middle of a slight downward change. The data in July showed that in 28 major city markets, the spot price of δ1.0㎜CQ grade general carbon cold rolled sheet coil remained unchanged in 9 markets, which increased by 3 compared with June. The market of Urumqi and Wuhan showed a slight increase of 10 and 20 respectively, and the price of the other 17 markets showed varying degrees of decline. There are 11 falling in the range of 10-60 yuan/ton, mainly distributed in the main markets in East China and North China, as well as Guangzhou market; The price of six markets, including four provincial capital markets in southwest China, Shijiazhuang market and Taiyuan market, fell within the range of 110-300 yuan/ton, which may reflect the worsening of the situation of cold rolling demand reduction, but also indicates that the weak price of cold rolling is still possible to continue.
In July, in the 18 major city markets, the average price of galvanized sheet coil of 0.5㎜ and 1.0㎜ thickness fell by 26 yuan/ton and 9 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.54% and 0.20%, the monthly decline of galvanized market price of 0.5㎜ thickness was significantly higher than 1.0㎜. Among the 18 statistical markets, 12 markets showed a flat price, with the price in Wuhan rising slightly, while the other 5 markets fell by more than 30 yuan/ton. In 15 major cities, the average price of conventional color color rolls of 0.326 mm and 0.476 mm thickness decreased by 15 yuan/ton and 9 yuan/ton respectively, continuing to show a monthly convergence trend.
In July, the price of hot rolled primary steel market continued to maintain a downward trend, and the average price of wire screw, hot coil and medium plate spot market decreased slightly compared with June. General cooling, coating market prices still maintain shock under the downward trend, and the decline in June is basically equivalent, steel spot market various varieties of weak price evolution is still a continuation.
2. In July 2014, the raw fuel price of steel fell significantly and the ore price stabilized to some extent
In July 2014, the Steelhouse iron ore price index SHCNOI decreased by 1.19%, which significantly converging from the 5.24% decline in June, because the domestic iron ore price index SHCNDOI and spot iron ore price index SHCNSOI decreased by 1.21% and increased by 0.14% this month, respectively. On the other hand, the SHCNIOI index of imported iron ore prices maintains a narrow trading pattern, which may converge to show that the ore price has tended to be relatively stable. Scrap steel price index SHCNFSI fell 1.79%, slightly higher than the 1.12% drop in June; The coke price index SHCNCKI fell 1.50%, extending the downward trend of the previous month. SHCNCCI of coking coal and SHCNPCI of injection coal decreased by 35 yuan/ton and 12 yuan/ton respectively, showing a significantly larger decline, as shown in Table 2. In addition to the evolution of iron ore prices is tending to stabilize, other major raw fuel prices are still in the condition of cover down.
Table 2 Comparison of Steel Raw material Benchmark Price Index in July (Unit: Yuan/ton)
In July, the stabilization of the ore price and the strengthening of the raw fuel price have made a subtle change in the cost of steel. According to the calculation, the average cost of crude steel in July according to the comprehensive ratio of imported ore and imported domestic ore is 2746.46 yuan/ton and 2798.36 yuan/ton respectively, which is 17.67 yuan/ton higher (up 0.65%) and 20.54 yuan/ton lower (down 0.73%) than the average cost in June respectively. In June, it decreased by 102.65 yuan/ton and 112.23 yuan/ton respectively. At the end of July, the Steelhome billet index SHCNSPI fell by 16 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, down 0.57%, slightly lower than the average cost of imported domestic ore composite ratio of crude steel, the subsequent market price of steel billet will continue to change according to the change of crude steel cost. In July, the price of imported ore stabilized and rebounded, contributing to the increase of steel manufacturing costs, which for the steel enterprises that rely on imported ore, will face greater pressure of upward cost, and may bring a certain negative effect on the improvement of their business conditions.
Third, in September 2014, the mainstream steel mill main carbon varieties factory price change range judgment
Table 1 shows that in July 2014, the average price of various varieties in the spot market of steel continued to fall within 50 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 1%, which may be ignored by steel mills when they are worthy of the price policy. However, the cumulative decline of various prices in recent months is large, which may prompt steel mills to adjust the factory price policy. Consider the possibility of adopting certain alternative measures to adjust, but given the current situation, this possibility is not very high; Moreover, there is little chance of a sharp drop in steel prices in August, but they are still in relatively low conditions. September is also a month when the demand for steel is gradually increasing. The execution of the contract of the steel mill in September should be better than that in July and August, which will make the steel mill give up the choice of reducing the factory price.
To sum up, it is expected that in September 2014 domestic mainstream steel mills general carbon cold and hot rolled CQ grade main varieties listed price flat possibility is great. If the actual ex-factory price is adjusted, it is possible to be adapted, that is, to be reflected by changes in similar preferential policies. The overall adjustment range is basically between -100 yuan and 0 yuan/ton, and the specific amplitude range is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Amplitude modulation judgment of ex-factory prices excluding tax for some varieties of mainstream steel mills in September 2014 (Unit: Yuan/ton)
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